Most watches depreciate. Some hold value. A rare few appreciate. Understanding these patterns helps you make informed purchases—whether you're buying to wear forever or considering future resale.
The Reality of Watch Depreciation
When you walk out of an authorized dealer with a new watch, it typically loses 20-40% of its value immediately. This is normal. Watches are consumer goods, not investments for most people.
Typical Depreciation by Tier
- Fashion watches: 50-70% loss immediately
- Entry Swiss (Tissot, Hamilton): 30-50% loss
- Mid-tier (TAG, Longines): 25-40% loss
- Premium (Omega, Tudor): 15-30% loss
- Rolex (standard models): 0-15% loss
- Allocated pieces: Often appreciate above retail
What Holds Value Best
Brand Matters Most
- Best retention: Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet
- Good retention: Omega (Speedmaster/Seamaster), Tudor, Grand Seiko
- Moderate: IWC, Breitling, Cartier, TAG Heuer
- Significant loss: Most others
Specific Models That Hold Value
- Rolex Submariner/GMT-Master: Often above retail
- Omega Speedmaster Professional: Stable, occasionally appreciating
- Patek Nautilus/Aquanaut: Significant appreciation
- AP Royal Oak: Strong appreciation
- Tudor Black Bay: Stable after initial depreciation
Factors Affecting Value
- Box and papers: Add 5-15% to resale value
- Condition: Scratches reduce value significantly
- Service history: Recent service is positive
- Original parts: Replacement dials/hands hurt value
- Dial variations: Rare dials can command premiums
- Market trends: Hype cycles affect specific models
💡 The Smart Approach
Buy the watch you want to wear, not the one you think will appreciate. Market predictions are unreliable. If you buy for value retention, buy Rolex sports models or Patek steel sports—but expect to wait years for allocation.
Buying for Value
If value retention matters to you:
- Buy grey market or pre-owned: Let someone else take the depreciation hit
- Keep box/papers: They matter for resale
- Buy proven models: Submariner, Speedmaster, Black Bay—not new releases
- Maintain condition: Baby your watches if resale matters
- Avoid limited editions: Often depreciate faster (exceptions exist)
The Bottom Line
Most watch buyers should ignore value retention. Buy what you love, wear it proudly, and don't worry about resale. The few hundred or thousand dollars difference rarely matters compared to years of enjoyment.
If you're specifically interested in watches as stores of value, focus on Rolex steel sports and Patek steel sports—and accept the difficulty of obtaining them at retail.